Ecological Forecasting: RiverNET’s predictive modeling of future watershed events
If you were told that we could see the future, would you believe it? Extreme weather events such as earthquakes, forest fires, and floods are frightening and seemingly unpredictable, but with YERC’s Freshwater Forecasting System, we are well on our way to reliably predicting watershed events like floods and droughts. Think 36-hour and 5-day weather forecasts, only for hydrologic conditions like flow amount, water temperature, erosion/turbidity, pollution transport, and floodplain soil moisture.
The “Great Flood of ‘22” tore through Park County, Montana, earlier this spring, leaving destruction in its wake along the Yellowstone River. Though the flood far exceeded previous records, there was little to no warning of this extreme event, let alone time for planning, evacuation and damage prevention. YERC’s RiverNET community science program is well positioned to create an early warning system that will help mitigate the damage of future watershed events.
Image Credit: Yellowstone National Park Flicr
RiverNET Phase 1: Baseline Monitoring
For 5 years, we have been collecting vital data to measure stream health on the entire Upper Yellowstone River Watershed - including 16 tributaries, not just the main stem. This phase serves two purposes: to measure freshwater health diagnostics and fill data gaps, and to provide essential data for Phase II. In order to take preventative action, we must build a foundation of knowledge and trust in diagnostics such as discharge (the volume of water flowing above ground), temperature, nitrogen, and more.
RiverNET Phase 2: Predictive Modeling
The sensor stations, sponsored by YERC supporters, in combination with other diagnostics will be combined to create a Freshwater Forecasting System. We began by building a total water budget that takes data from two models: USDA’s SWAT for aboveground modeling, and USGS’s MODFLOW for belowground modeling. These models are now working together and predicting discharge, water temperature, sediment transport, and other important variables both for short-term forecasts but also powerful What-if-Scenario predictions for planning, adaptation, and prevention.
In 2023 we expect to be capable of predicting flood events and drought with our Freshwater Forecasting System, thus allowing preparations to be taken in advance of the disaster. Three of our sensors did sustain damages during the 2022 flood, but we cannot emphasize enough how important it is that these sensors are up and running, to provide critical data that could help us prepare for future watershed events. Our model is “training” with the data our sensors collected before, during, and after the flood to improve the performance of the Freshwater Forecasting System. You can find additional information regarding RiverNET, what we monitor, and our technology here.
Please join us in developing and implementing this early warning, planning and prediction system by volunteering or donating. We are building this tool with and for community members like you, and are grateful for the support we have and continue to build.